Israel

	Earthquake

Israel Earthquake

The RMS® Israel Earthquake Model is the first catastrophe model to offer both high resolution and aggregate analysis capabilities for insurance and reinsurance risk management. Built in collaboration with Israeli experts, the model combines comprehensive information on earthquake hazard with detailed analysis of Israeli building vulnerability to quantify potential earthquake losses throughout Israel.

Israel, though generally considered to have moderate seismicity, is threatened by the Dead Sea Rift, which creates a series of active faults running the length of the country. The model captures the hazard of the Dead Sea Rift and its faults, including the Jordan Valley Fault in the north, which has a high probability of generating a major earthquake.

Jerusalem is located less than 25 miles (40 km) from the Jordan Valley Fault, which generates magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes approximately every 1,000 years. The last major event on this segment occurred in 1033, increasing the current probability of a major earthquake. The RMS model estimates that a worst-case scenario in the region would be a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Jordan Valley Fault, causing over $30 billion in economic losses.

Continued rapid development of Israel is dramatically influencing the composition of risk and concentrations of exposure. These changes in exposure, combined with a lack of recent large earthquakes, underscores the need for probabilistic catastrophe risk models that reflect the complex nature of medium and long-term risk. The RMS® Israel Earthquake Model provides the most advanced capability for insurers and reinsurers to understand the impact of earthquake risk on insurance portfolios in Israel.

Model Highlights

	Recurrence parameters consistent with enhanced historical catalog and recent research by the Geophysical Institute of Israel and others
	Event probabilities based on time dependency for the Jordan Valley source and Poisson for all other sources
	Soil type and liquefaction susceptibility data for over 13,000 postal codes throughout Israel, accounting for variations in ground shaking caused by local soil conditions
	Vulnerability relationships validated using damage data from the 1995 earthquake south of Elat, as well as data from earthquakes in countries with similar construction characteristics, such as Greece and Turkey

Geographic Scope

All counties and administrative areas: Haifa, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Northern, Central, Southern, Golan Heights, West Bank, and Gaza.

Exposure Data Resolution

Latitude/Longitude, Postal code, Yishuv (District), Irya (City), Mehoz (County), or CRESTA Zone